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2018 Fantasy Footballers draft tips for the hardcore rookies!

Welcome Fantasy Football Fiends! The start of another wonderful NFL season is around the corner which means it’s close to #draftszn. After 6 long months it’s time to take back that damn gold trophy that was stripped away from your mits as you were crossing the goal line like vintage Leon Lett…

But hey, there’s not a reason to be bitter, I’d much rather learn to get better at this fickle game… Doesn’t matter if it’s over the internet or in real life at a live draft event, it’s time to rock some gold and talk a little poo poo to your fellow man.

Below are three ways to better defeat your fantasy football adversary starting with the first test: fantasy drafting!

Tip #1 Draft the sure bet. High risk-high reward player are tempting but it’s not necessary because if the player is a flop, the gamble you took on the player will be hard to recover from especially in the first round. Plus, the player who averages 1,000 all purpose yards & 5 touchdowns per year will be better than a player who rushed for 1300 plus yards and 9 touchdowns in 2017 but normally is a sub 1000 yard back. The name of the game is value, playa!

Tip #2 Don’t get cute. Picture this: It’s your third pick and thus far you’ve knocked it out of the park with your first two picks, although a bell cow running back is still sitting there in the third round unfortunately you’ve already taken two running backs, do we take the bait? If nothing else we can just fill in for your current starters bye weeks, right? No! It’s a trap! Take your WR1 because at the end of the day, you’ve already filled those spots, fill the others…

Another reason could be by drafting a third running back early, you have trade bait later on but you’re losing out on value on other positions and often times you won’t find a suitable trade partner. Focus on filling the holes on your roster first then add depth to your bench.

Tip #3 Leggo your ego. Spit your game, talk your crap while actually watching football but don’t let certain players get passed on because you hate that team. I am a Raiders fan, but I won’t pass on a guy like Keenan Allen who plays for the arch rivals, Los Angeles Chargers if it’s a good move.

These are just a few tips that will mold you into a fantasy league champ in no time!

Draft well my friend.

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Sports as we know it today has come a long way. There were times when watching sports on television was considered a massive step forward in terms of technology. Fast forward 60 years, watching sports on television has become the most basic thing. Today we watch sports on the go on our mobile phones or any device with a screen and internet connectivity. Proud of how far we’ve come, aren’t we? Hopefully I can change your opinion on that by the end of this article.

What is sports all about? Sports is a bunch of people getting together to play a game with pre defined rules and a referee to ensure that these rules are adhered to during the passage of play. I am a sport lover and play sports all time. My love for tennis and soccer in particular cannot be defined. My issue when it came to technology and advanced analytics was with the game of soccer in particular. Soccer is such a beautiful game. The strategies that the coaching staff come up with and the way it is executed on field by the players, it actually is a thing of beauty. I was a soccer player myself (just an average one at that) and have been part of various teams. I know firsthand how strategies are built, how much thought goes into one single run of play.

Enter -> Advanced Analytics

Most of you would’ve seen the movie Moneyball. The movie was based on the book Michael Lewis wrote in 2003. It talks about how a jock turned luminary uses advanced statistics to gain a competitive edge over his better funded opponents. This book brought about a revolution is sports. Fans and boards of soccer clubs didn’t want to settle for subpar statistics or analytics anymore. What Moneyball did is, it took an old cliché – «sports are businesses» and made us move on to the next logical question – «how do we do things smarter?»

Now let’s talk about advanced analytics. Advanced analytics in today’s world plays a massive role in every business sector. Advanced analytics has been a boon for us. Moving from descriptive analytics to prescriptive analytics, we actually have come a long way. In various businesses, where the requirement is demanding, advanced analytics are of utmost importance.

When we look at soccer, its a game that does not require too much machine intelligence, it is a game that needs the human element. When you bring in analytics and technology and try to reduce the human element in the sports, it simply just crushes the spirit of the game.

Relying on analytics heavily killed the Premier Leagues long ball game and brought in the pressing, continual passing tiki-taka. Each league for that matter had its own style of play. The Premier League had the brash and brazen style of football that was termed «The way real men play football». There were beautiful long balls, harsh tackles but all the players just sucked it up, walked it off and it was all up to the referee on the pitch to penalize the offender or not. There were arguments and fights, the passion from the fans was crazy, that was the football that screamed of passion, when players got in the face of other players not fearing punishment. The Eric Cantona’s, the Ivan Genaro Gattuso’s, the Jaap Stam’s of the football world went missing soon enough and the diving and the biting began. Then there was the tiki-taka style of football that was played in the Spanish La Liga, the silky style of play that caught everyone off guard. The legendary Pep Guardiola and his army at Barcelona were the masters of the tiki-taka. There was Real Madrid who were always a star studded line-up with excessive parts of their play relying on lightning quick counters which most often than not left the opponents stunned. There was Manchester United who had their own brand of football being managed by the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson. That United team was a team of sheer grit and character. Each of these leagues had their own beauty and the teams had their own style of play.

When you bring in excessive technology and analytics, there emerge sorry technologies like VAR (Video Assistant Referees).

There are 3 stages as to how the VAR works:

Step 1

Incident occurs

The referee informs the VAR, or the VAR recommends to the referee that a decision/incident should be reviewed.

Step 2

Review and advice by the VAR

The video footage is reviewed by the VAR, who advises the referee via headset what the video shows.

Step 3

Decision or action is taken

The referee decides to review the video footage on the side of the field of play before taking the appropriate action/decision, or the referee accepts the information from the VAR and takes the appropriate action/decision.

Now the referee can consult with VAR for basically any doubts he wants clarified. What does this do?

• Removes the human element from the game.

• Takes up excess time and brings too many stoppages within the game, a game that was previously free flowing and continuous.

This makes it similar to Formula 1 racing. The analytics which brought about the fuel weight management systems and the numerous pit stops took the continuity out of the race and viewership reduced with the increase in technology. A pretty similar trend might occur in football if this implementation becomes mandatory.

The Positive Side of Advanced Analytics in Soccer:

Analytics are not all that bad in football. Let’s take the case of when Simon Wilson joined Manchester City in 2006. Simon Wilson was a consultant for an analytics startup called Prozone initially. He joined City to start a department of analytics and hired the best data analysts under him. He wanted to change the way how data was used by football teams. He saw that, after a defeat there was no introspection as to why they had lost and what needed to be done next time. City were a mid table club at that time. In September 2008, when the club was acquired by the Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment, a private-equity outfit owned by a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family, the team suddenly found itself with the resources necessary to mount a challenge for the Premier League. Today, Wilson is Manchester City’s manager of strategic performance analysis. He has five departments under him, including the team of performance analysis, which is now led by a sports scientist named Ed Sulley.

After each match, the team’s performance data would be examined. The list is extensive. Line breaks (a rugby term), ball possession, pass success rates, ball win/loss time ratio were what used to be analyzed. «Instead of looking at a list of 50 variables we want to find five, say, that really matter for our style of play,» says Pedro Marques, a match analyst at Manchester City.

«With the right data-feeds, the algorithms will output the statistics that have a strong relationship with winning and losing.» Wilson recalls one particular period when Manchester City hadn’t scored from corners in over 22 games, so his team decided to analyze over 400 goals that were scored from corners. It was noticed that about 75 percent resulted from in-swinging corners, the type where the ball curves towards the goal. The next 12 games of the next season saw City score nine goals from corner.

Teams are investing heavily in analytics today and it is working in their favor. Look at where Manchester City are today, sitting atop the Premier League table and not being threatened at all. Look at Manchester United this season, their game has been such where their possession percentages are low but their goal conversions are high. The Manchester Derby on 7th April 2018 saw United have only 35% of the possession but they managed to trump City 3-2. Each team has their set of analysts who provide inputs as per the strength of the team.

Advanced analytics is like the coin Two Face in Batman has, «Heads you die, Tails you survive!»

It can reap crazy rewards from a team’s point of view but at the same time can disrupt the lovely game by bringing in unnecessary stoppages, replays and by taking the human element out of it. The numerous replays and the different angles, show the fans if the referee has made an error or not. Let the error happen, after all to err is human. Refereeing in soccer is not an exact science and it’s all real time. Let there be arguments about a decision, let the passion in the argument come through. Do you want to watch a football match like the El Classico or the Manchester Derby and sit with your bunch of friends and say «it was a very clean game, the best team won!» Hell NO! Don’t drive the passion out of soccer with technology and analytics. Let soccer be soccer and let technology stay away!

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Guys and gals who play fantasy football to win know they have to get the basic concepts under their belt before they go a blow an entire season.

Bye Week – During the regular season, every team in the NFL has a bye week. During a bye week, football players get a chance to rest and heal as their team does not have to play a game that week. Bye weeks are used in the real NFL to give a team and the team’s players a break to review plays and just to refresh the players. Fantasy football bye weeks can make or break your chances for winning. Don’t pick players that have the same bye week because you may limit your options for plays and points. Make sure your roster has players in as many different bye weeks as possible.

Cheat Sheet – You need to arm yourself with a cheatsheet to have during your league’s draft. A cheat sheet is a list of players, usually ranked by position or importance, that you as an owner want to draft. As players are selected, be sure to cross them off your cheat sheet so you can be ready with your next pick when your turn comes around. Before your draft, research the players you are interested in drafting and arrange them in the order that you want to select them, and use that as a guide during your draft.

Commissioner – The commissioner is the person in charge of the league. As a fantasy football player you need to know who this is and understand the rules set forth by the commissioner. This person makes all the important decisions for the league and usually sets up the draft and any other events. They also usually set up the website for your league and keep track of all the records, schedules, and stats.

Handcuffing – Handcuffing is when you draft a star player like a running back or quarterback, and then just in case they get injured and can’t play you also draft their backup. Handcuffing can be effective for running backs since there are very few great running backs in the NFL, but it isn’t recommended for other positions.

Keeper League – In a normal fantasy football draft, every team starts empty and owners select their team through a draft. Every year the teams start from scratch and draft again. In a keeper league the entire league does a draft and the season plays out like normal. However, after the first season the teams do not re-draft, they keep their roster for the next year as well.

Mock Draft – A mock draft is an estimate of what players will go where before the draft actually takes place. This can be very useful to new fantasy football players. It will help you gauge who you will be able to take with your first few picks. However, fantasy football drafts are very unpredictable and a mock draft is an only an estimate of what could happen.

Team Position – Your team’s position in the draft is the sequence number that you pick your players. Some drafts follow a normal patter of teams picking from the #1 spot until every team has selected and then start over. Other drafts use a «snake style» draft where all teams will pick in order until all the teams have made one selection and then start over round two going in reverse order. As a fantasy football player your draft picks fall according to your team position. The position determines when you select your players.

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Finally, my favorite time of the year. Fantasy Football Season. The storm is coming boys. These leagues can get expensive. They’re definitely a hefty investment. Are you tired of losing every single year? Tired of not having any bragging rights? Well you’re in luck. I’ve won «the big one» back in my day. I remember it like it was yesterday, sophomore year of high school. Best $60 I ever made. Honestly, it wasn’t even the money that made it worth it to me. A full year of bragging rights? Can’t beat it. With my step by step guidelines, you’re guaranteed to win… (at least like 3 games).

Let’s Coooooooook.

DO YOUR RESEARCH. The biggest mistake that tends to happen to people is that they don’t keep up with any of the news. It’s like neglecting going to class, taking notes, doing homework all semester long and expecting to ace the final. That’s absolutely absurd. You can’t just show up to the draft without any prior knowledge of trades, free agency signings, INJURY REPORTS!!! Those are key. I cannot tell you how many times I’ve witnessed someone waste a high draft pick on a player that tore their ACL the week before or didn’t pass their drug test and end up on suspension. PLEASE come prepared to your draft. Watch SportsCenter, listen to the radio or a podcast, read a blog (wink wink).
GO WITH YOUR GUT. The key to drafting a great team is going with your gut feeling. You need to ensure that is the type of player you can rely on so that each week you have confidence before setting that lineup. Go out and get your guy early on. You might think he’ll fall to the later rounds… but before you know it, he might be gone. You might regret it in the long run.
KNOW THE RULES. Make sure to ask your commissioner questions. It is important to know the point system. For example, if you join a PPR (Points Per Reception) league, you might want to draft entirely different. Your prioritizes / position need will be influenced. You might want to draft a WR in the first round as opposed to an RB.
KICKERS LIVES MATTER TOO. Please stop drafting Kickers in the last round. They are a STARTER in your lineup – and can potentially score anywhere from 5-20 points (20 on a good day). The key is to draft a kicker from a high run volume team. They tend to kick more field goals because it’s harder for them to convert on 3rd downs. Aka this equals more time for the kicker on the field.
DRAFT AN EARLY QUARTERBACK. I’m over the stereotype of waiting to draft a QB. Why in the world would you do that? This is the position that scores the most points for your team every single week. It is so important to draft a solid QB. Surprise your friends this year and be the wild card. Draft the #1 QB off the board right off the bat. Maybe even a 2nd just so you have some trade bait.
DO NOT SHARE A TEAM WITH A FRIEND. I’ve had a duo of friends who would do this every single year and it was the most annoying thing on the planet. They would constantly fight and disagree on things. Most common mistake I’ve heard in the past: «I don’t know enough about football to draft my own team.» — You will never learn until you experience your own team. Be your own individual player! Make it fair. Everyone is working on their own. «Co-Owners» of Fantasy Football Teams are a joke. FYI – they NEVER win championships. There is your life lesson for the day.
TAKE THE ‘BYE WEEK’ INTO ACCOUNT. People who don’t pay attention to Bye Weeks when drafting players tend to find themselves in a pickle. What if the playoffs are coming up and you REALLY need this win. But oh no. You have multiple starters on a Bye Week? Enjoy that L. Another reason to check the Bye Weeks is that sometimes you don’t have enough room on your roster to keep good players. You might need a certain position filled but nobody on the bench can fill. This means you have to drop a player. Just remember to be careful.
STOP DRAFTING ELI MANNING. He is trash. Just don’t. I don’t care if he has O’dell Beckham Jr. I promise you, it is a mistake.
DON’T BE THE TACO OF YOUR LEAGUE. There’s always that guy who refuses to pay attention to their team throughout the season. Unfinished lineups are the worst. Don’t be that guy. Don’t neglect your team. Trust me, I enjoy the easy W’s.. I’ll take them. But I also enjoy and encourage a challenge. It makes the game more fun for everyone.
CHECK THE WAIVER WIRE. This one applies more to you after you draft your fantasy team – but free agency is key. People are constantly dropping and picking up players every week. Some of those players are steals… Plus, there’s always that dark horse that goes undrafted. You want to hop on that players wave before the momentum dies down.

Every year, I join multiple fantasy leagues… Losing in all of them. But this year, is my year. The king is BACK. I’m focusing in on just one league. This league, in particular, is one that I’ve been in since 7th grade. It is my «Shiva-Bowl.» It’s also the most money I’ve ever put into a league before. My recommendation take my advice into consideration and to pay attention every week during the season. OH and purchase NFL REDZONE. It is the best investment I’ve ever made. Sometimes you just want to watch the exciting stuff. You want to watch every game. Well, now you can. This program constantly bounces back and forth, catching all of the action. It only bounces when the team is about to score and in «the redzone» – hence the name.

Well, that’s all I got for you today folks. Goodluck on your seasons.

– Chef Toro

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No football team has captured America’s attention in recent years quite like the Boise State Broncos. A school that was just a junior college until 1967, shocked the world when it upset the University of Oklahoma in an overtime win of 43-42 in the 2007 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. The game featured trick plays, unbelievable comebacks, multiple lead changes, and a 2 point conversion in overtime on Statue of Liberty play. The program is not just defined by that game, however, as they returned to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (a BCS game) in 2010 and regularly finished ranked in the Top 25. They have also defeated a number of other Automatic Qualifier schools like Georgia and Virginia Tech.

Boise State’s first helmet as a 4 year university (Boise State College) was believed to be all orange with a blue stripe. It was later switched to all blue. In 1972, the team added a bronco head logo in an orange circle. The head was white with a blue mane and orange background. The logo was switched to a stylistic font in lowercase spelling b-s-u in 1974. Some form of this logo was in use all the way until 1996 with the exception of the period between 1976 and 1977. In 1976, the logo was radically changed. A bronco head in orange was plastered across the side with blue shadowing and a white outline. Frankly, it looked a little strange and not necessarily very menacing to opponents.

The changes that happened to the Boise State football helmet between 1978 and 1996 did not have to do with the lowercase b-s-u logo. That stayed the same with its orange letters, white outline, curvy s, and unclosed b. The changes included going to a blue facemask instead of gray in 1980, then later to a white facemask with orange and white vertical stripes in 1987. The stripes were dropped in 1991. By 1997, it was time for a change and the word «Broncos» replaced the b-s-u logo. This is somewhat similar to the Gators logo that you see today on the University of Florida helmet. This logo remained until 2002 when the modern day Boise State words, with the fierce looking bronco head built in and on top, came into being.

The modern day Boise State helmet has been about the same since 2002, with the exception of the facemask and special games helmets. The facemask went from white to gray in 2009. On a few occasions, the logo has been changed. The bronco head is greatly increased in size where it covers a large chunk of the Boise State football helmet. The words «Boise State» are dropped altogether. The 2 variations of this include the blue background with grey and blue bronco head (and orange eye) which was worn against Virginia Tech in the 2010 season opener and Utah in the 2010 MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, and a white helmet with blue and white bronco head (again with orange eye) which was worn against Georgia in the 2011 season opener in the Georgia Dome.

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I will analyze a few generic ideas about blocking for pee wee football in this post. I will review a couple of the unique tips and styles coached by teams throughout the USA. Many of the styles are OK while others are worthless. This will be a basic post describing how crucial it is to coach blocking the right way, particularly for the junior kids.

A wise ols coach stated «To succeed in football make sure your block and tackle better than your opponent». From the NFL to Pop Warner this is the key to succeeding in football. It does not matter how sophisticated or slick your offensive system may be, if the offensive linemen do not block well, your team will not have success. There is always that one exception, and in pop warner football, it is the squad that has the God-given greased lightning speed for their ball carriers.

If you are coaching young players and have the fastest player in the league, then you do not need great blocking. Get your speed back the ball and watch him out run everyone to the end zone. Most teams are lucky to see this caliber of players once a decade so it is best to prepare the team as if you will not have the fastest player in the league. As the teams get older and more experienced you can coach up game plans to rein in that quickness, but when the players are young, it is almost impossible to stop.

The age old blocking argument comes up each year on whether or not the kids should be coached to block using their hands or use more of an old school techniques where the players put their hands at their own chest and stick their elbows out. I like to show it in both variations and let each kid use the style that works best for him.. If you do your job correctly and teach the proper three-point stance, the style preferred by the players will not matter.and will become a matter of personal preference.

The little kids genuinely prefer the old school elbows out style. I believe it is an improvement since it will stop our players from holding an opponent and it makes it harder for an opponent to get around them. I like to show the kids to grab their own jersey when using the elbows out method.

If the players decide to use their hands when blocking it is crucial to coach them not to snatch onto anything. I opt to coach this block as a punch block by making our linemen form a fist. As you begin your block instincts take over and you may hold if the defender is running around you. By making your kids form a fist, it will stop the reflex, which is to grasp the defender’s jersey.

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Perhaps no other football team in the NFL is as popular as the Dallas Cowboys. Nicknamed years ago «Americas Team», people either love them or hate them. But what can’t be argued is their success. In the 45 years of their existence, the Dallas Cowboys have been the won more football games than any other team in all of football. The Cowboys are also well known for having the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders.

The Dallas Cowboys came into the NFL on January 28, 1960. They make their home in Irving, TX (Dallas suburb) and play their games in Texas Stadium. This stadium, built in 1971, is well known amongst football fans due to the unique hole in the roof above the football field.

Over the years the Cowboys have played in 8 or the 40 Super Bowls, winning 5 of them. Only San Francisco can make that claim. They have made the playoffs 27 times and won 18 division titles.

Jerry Jones is currently the team owner and president. The Dallas Cowboys are coached by Bill Parcells. When the team first came into the league they were coached by Tom Landry. He remained the coach of the Cowboys from 1960 up until 1988. He is arguably one of the greatest head coaches the NFL has ever had.

The Dallas Cowboys have had more than their share of football players go into the Hall of Fame. Some of these include:

o Tom Landry

o Tony Dorsett

o Bob Lily

o Mel Renfro

o Tex Schramm

o Roger Staubach

o Randy White

o Lance Alworth

o Mike Ditka

o Herb Adderly

o Forrest Gregg

o Tommy McDonald

o Jackie Smith

The Dallas Cowboys first season in the NFL was not the kind of start they were hoping for. They failed to win even one game. A few years later, in 1965, they started their run of 9 straight playoff appearances. The Cowboys reached the Super Bowl in 1971, but lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The next year, 1972, the Cowboys returned to the Super Bowl, this time winning it over the Miami Dolphins 24-3.

The football Cowboys later went to the Super Bowl in 76, 78 and 79. The game in 1979 against Pittsburgh is still considered to be the greatest football game in Super Bowl history.

The team went through a lot of rebuilding in the late 80s and Tom Landry retired after the 1988 season. It was at this time that Jerry Jones also bought the team and brought in Jimmy Johnson as head coach. This began a run of success that very few football teams have ever experienced.

With Emmit Smith in the backfield, Troy Aikman as quarterback and Michael Irvin as wide receiver, the Dallas Cowboys won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1993 and 1994. After a major disagreement with owner Jerry Jones, Jimmy Johnson retired. New coach Barry Switzer came in and took the Cowboys to the playoffs 3 times, including winning the Super Bowl again in 1997.

This success has kept Dallas at the top of the football world for many years. With their steep winning tradition, this success can be expected to continue for many more years to come.

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Wading Upstream When Coaching Youth Football

Many «mature» youth football programs that have been around for 10+ years or more often have ingrained traits. Many times it is almost like some of these clubs have their own identity or even «brand». Most leagues are made up of various identifiable «brands» or clubs. Each has it’s own unique personality and way of doing things.

Most youth football leagues are made up of a variety of these unique «brands». There is often friendly and sometimes almost unfriendly and unhealthy competition amongst the coaches of the various clubs.

The Nature of the Beast

As most of you coaches know, it takes quite a bit of time and effort to keep a youth football program up and running. While most of the «heavy lifting» is done by the «parent coaches», in order for there to be long term stability there has to be continuity and that means some leadership that stay beyond the «lifespan» of their own childrens participation. Unfortunately, for most organizations, those types of resources are somewhat limited. Thank goodness for these people, without them all of us would have to start from scratch every few years.

Unfortunately SOME of those that have been around a long time also bring with them some unneeded baggage that actually inhibit the ability of the organization to meet it’s mission. Some of these well meaning coaches will be coaching against you and they don’t like change or anything that makes their organization shown in a poor light. They will always be your biggest critics. Any type of «change» means they will have to learn how defend a new scheme or defend against techniques they’ve never seen before.

Being a Bit Different

My own teams are the most filmed, studied and talked about in the league we play in because we run something much different than anyone else, we consistently score a lot of points and we consistently win. I’m sure those opposing coaches get tired of hearing from parents; «Why can’t we execute or score the kind of points the Eagles do? Or why don’t we have those cool football plays like the Eagles? Or why can’t you get the ball to so many players like the Eagles do. Or why can’t our kids block and tackle and play lights out defense like the Eagles do?» They tire of hearing it and sometimes their frustration and embarrassment shows. Unfortunately if these coaches can’t stop you, they will often try to discount you or become the king of the excuse makers.

We get to hear so many interesting stories from you coaches via e-mail, phone and in person at clinics. That is probably the most fun part of me doing this, listening to these amazing stories and in some cases being able to help in a small way. Some of the situations you have to deal with are down right difficult and silly in my opinion. There is often egotism and backside covering in youth football on so many levels. While there are fantastic leagues with great and committed people reaching kids all over the country, on the other hand there are also small minded, egotistical, jealous «human barriers» out there as well.

In doing a few private clinics these last few months I had the privilege of working with several quality organizations and several groups of simply outstanding coaches. Coaches that not only were great X’s and O’s guys, but guys that were in youth football for the right reasons. Some of the things I saw: teams that were overflowing with kids, everyone coming back to play ( great retention numbers), enthusiastic coaches, open minded and committed coaching staffs. Universally their kids respected and admired them, very easy group of kids to work with. You could just tell, the kids loved playing the game, they couldn’t wait to get football practice started and they hated it when practice ended. In fact, one group of coaches was able to marshall a group of 20 or so players overnight to a next day practice. This was smack in the middle of baseball and lacrosse season, you know they are doing something right when they can pull that off.

Youth Football Drama Unfolds

One story I have to share with you that was told to me in the «off-hours» discussions at one of these clinics I did lately by a coach that put our system in last year for the very first time:. After our classroom clinic and on field demos, we went with the coaching staff to a local restaurant for lunch. One of the more demonstrative coaches shared with the group in a very animated fashion several very humorous stories of his first season running my Offense. Last season he was at a game scouting an opponent and overheard several of the coaches from his next weeks opponent, talking about his team. The opponent coaches had no idea our friend was a coach as they unknowlingly bragged to him about how they were going to crush his team the following week. These opposing coaches seemed to take such glee in how they were going to stop that ‘silly» offense and blow up the «wedge» play and everything else for that matter with ease. These guys went on and on about how «stupid» the wedge was and how it had no chance of working against their defense. In fact these coaches involved our friend in the conversation, they demonstrated to him how the linemen would get down low and bunch up together, again sarcastically mocking the offense to the hilt. Imagine their shock and horror the following week when they saw this very same coach come out for the coaches introduction and coin flip.

Our friend is quite the story teller, he is one of those guys that has everyone laughing and can put you on the edge of your seat, you know the guy, the life of the party. As he told the story he was a flurry of activity, standing up, sitting down, moving around the table, arms flailing, voice rising and falling, and of course lots of smiles and laughter. The game results were almost as interesting as how the story was told. By the time the game started our friend was a little fired up and had his mind made up he was going to start with the wedge play to see if this other team really had all the answers to back up their coaches bravado. The first offensive snap went for a 70 yard wedge touchdown, coach was grinning a bit and pretty happy. After holding the other team to a 3 and out, the next play for our friends team: you guessed it, a 63 yard wedge touchdown. On the inside, our hero was beaming, throwing his fist in the air, silencing his poorly informed naysayers, but on the outside he was calm and confident, with maybe the hint of a knowing grin on his face.

He thought about running the wedge play every play in that first half to prove a point, but was the better man and held off from what probably was a pretty tempting course of action. By halftime the score was 35-0 and our hero called off the dogs to make it a 42-7 final. At the end of his story I joined the crowd in roaring laughter that was probably so loud it startled a few of the restaurant patrons. Thank goodness it was Florida and we were in a fairly low-key place that this group frequents regularly. I think I laughed so hard part of my lungs are still on the floor somewhere in that restaurant. These weren’t his only critics, in the end his team finished an improbable 14-1. They beat at least 7 teams that had far greater talent than his team, based on the game tapes I watched. This was a magical season by a youth football team that had no winning tradition and excellent coaching.

While I had met some of the coaching staff for this team a number of times (very high quality guys), I had never met this coach. Our introduction included a warm hetrosexual hug, something that comes from sharing a common bond or experience. I’m always a bit surprised by the warm welcomes I get from people I’ve never met. But, being a midwesterner, for me it is one of the biggest benefits of doing what I do.

Know It May Come Your Way

Be prepared, is what I’m trying to get across to you. When you aren’t running the very same thing as most of the teams in your league you can be the target of a few jabs. If you have greater talent than anyone in your league, it makes a lot of sense to run exactly what everyone else is running if that makes you happy. But when you don’t match up, when you DON’T have the best talent, how are you going to be able to compete running the same stuff as most of your opponents? When you score a lot of points and win a lot of games like many or most of our teams do, the jealousy fangs of some will unfortunately appear. Stay the course, but know those jabs may come your way.

In the end many of the curious and the critics of our hero in this story are now taking his team seriously. When you have success, it is impossible to ignore no matter how much anyone would like to. The teams in this Club that ran our system went a combined 23-1 and now other teams in the club are looking to adopt some of what they are doing. I know this coach is forever grateful to the coach (KMJ) that brought this system into this organization. I’m sure the parents are glad that coach was open minded enough to listen to the coach (KMJ) that researched . learned and brought the system to his attention as well. Mind you, I am NOT taking credit for this teams success, the coaches and players did a simply superb job, their execution was nearly flawless.

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Over-valued fantasy football players are not necessarily players that will struggle this season. They are players that are being drafted too high in the draft compared to their predicted output versus players at the same position being drafted much lower. Successful fantasy football team owners are the owners that recognize value in each round and draft accordingly. There is no set methodology on what position to draft in each round or what players should be drafted in each round. As always, KNOW YOUR SCORING system and let that dictate your drafting strategy and be flexible about your strategy so you can make adjustments on the fly based on how the draft is unfolding so you can recognize Value in the players still available.

Assuming a standard fantasy football scoring system, we are going to cite players that we are seeing drafted too high compared to other players at their position. Currently, the most over-valued fantasy football players thus far, according to their Average Draft Position, are as follows.

QB: Peyton Manning (Denver) – Peyton began showing his age towards the end of 2014. He was still the third highest scoring QB last season, but that won’t happen this year and he is being drafted as the third QB. Manning is a bit slower, throws more INTs, the Broncos are relying much more on their running game and Peyton has lost a few weapons. Wes Welker and Julian Thomas are gone and RB C.J. Anderson is breaking out. I still expect 4000 yards and 30 TDs from Peyton, but you can get that kind of production later in the draft from numerous other QBs… QBs that are much younger and more mobile than the 39-year old Manning.

RB: Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) – There are many people that felt that Stewart cane into his own last season and it will springboard him into a successful 2015. Sure, he averaged 100 ypg in his last 4 and the Panthers did let RB DeAngelo Williams go, but I don’t buy it. He has only had one season of over 200 carries due to injuries and has already tweaked his ankle this summer. If you decide that he is worth the risk, make sure to also grab Cameron Artis-Payne to plug in the day the switchover happens.

WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo) – Sammy Watkins is as talented as a receiver gets in the AFC East, but you won’t notice this season. Kyle Orton was a serviceable QB, but he has retired and the list of QBs now in Buffalo makes a person cringe; Matt Cassel, E.J. Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. Coach Rex Ryan has faced this situation before and I can guarantee you that he is going to try to win by running the ball and letting his defense do the bulk of the work. Also, Sammy is coming off hip surgery which is definitely not going to help. The NFL is chocked full of quality WRs so don’t spend a pick on Watkins as it could just be a wasted pick.

TE Julius Thomas (Jacksonville) – Julius is very talented but he may never see the production that he had in Denver again. Of course, he has 46 million reasons not to be too upset about it. Thomas’ greatest value has always come in the form of TDs. Because Denver had so much talent, he was never relied upon to be a catch/yardage-heavy option. Now, Jacksonville is largely devoid of receiving talent, so it could mean that Thomas will compensate for his drop in TD receptions with more catches and yards, but it could also mean that he will face double-teams. He is far too risky to consider taking him in single-digit rounds when there could be a half-dozen tight ends that end up with the same, or better, numbers that are drafted in double-digit rounds.

K Stephen Gostkowski (New England) – Gostkowski was the highest scoring kicker in the NFL last season so he should be the highest drafted kicker, correct? Well, I would agree, but why take ANY kicker before your last or second-to-last round? Philly K Cody Parker was a mere 2 field goals behind Gostkowski in points and no one is thinking about taking him over a WR4 or RB4. Fill your bench before taking a kicker.

D Seattle – Along the same lines as a kicker, WAIT on your defense. Unless you have a robust scoring system that rewards defenses heavily, the difference in points between the top dozen defenses is too small to think about taking a defense in single-digit rounds. Seattle gets a LOT of press and has been to two straight Super Bowls, but they were not the top-scoring defense in fantasy last year even after having an ADP in single-digit rounds. As a matter of fact, in some formats, they were the 7-9th highest scoring defense in 2014. Before I take a kicker, I always start two rounds before and grab my first defense then grab my second defense. The top defenses fluctuate every year. Who would have figured that Philly would have had the highest-scoring fantasy defense last season?

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Winning the football pools on a regular basis seems like a dream (or pure fancy) to many people. It can be done though, if you have a system. How can you work the odds? It’s a question that a lot of people ask!

Let’s look at the basic odds. With a coupon of 49 matches (games), we are looking to identify a winning line of 8 score draws on the British treble chance pools if we are to win a 1st Dividend (a score draw or SD is a result in which both teams end up with the same number of goals, not zero). If we stake on 1 line only (nobody does, but leave that aside for now), then the odds of selecting the correct 8 matches from 49 are approximately 450 million to 1. With the UK lottery the odds are 14 million to 1 for a six number combination, by comparison.

If we stake 45,000 lines in an entry, then that reduces the odds (on a purely random basis), to about 10,000 to 1. That’s getting a whole lot better. Now, there are complications. There will not always be 8 SD results on a given coupon, and sometimes there may be as many as 15 or even more. During the latter part of 2009, the number of drawn matches (both SD and no-score draw) varied between 12% (1 no score and 5 score draws) and 38% (5 no-score and 13 SDs) of the coupon. The maximum number of score draws during that 12 week period was 14. See the accompanying chart.

Let’s take a week on which there are 13 score draws as an example. With 13 such draws, there are 1,287 possible combinations of the 8 needed for a 1st Dividend. This helps our odds considerably – 10,000 to 1 becomes 7.77 to 1 (ok, 8 to 1 to keep it simple). That’s with a random selection of our 45,000 lines.

Now, just suppose that football teams play to form (not always or consistently true), but let’s say that we can predict draw games with 60% accuracy within our selections. This means that we are 20% better on the odds (10% edge above 50% random). So, odds of 8 to 1 now become 6.4 to 1 (or 13/2 if we were betting on horses). There are other ways of sharpening the odds in our favour, and a lot more to working a system, but I hope that this article has given you a flavour!

(c) Phil Marks 2009

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